TheBulletin.ca Journal of Downtown Toronto
Condominium apartment starts continue to be supported by the backlog of units sold but not yet started
By Ed Heese –
Housing starts in the Toronto, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 31,829 units in June compared to 34,330 in May according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) 1 of housing starts.
Although down this month, condominium apartment starts continue to be supported by the backlog of units sold but not yet started. Starts of low-rise housing, which includes single-detached, semi-detached and row houses, remained a relatively stable part of residential construction activity.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 35,062 units in June, down from 40,717 in May.
Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following LINK
All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) – that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
A PDF graph and tables for download HERE
