This time we have to get it right about who’s mayor

The person who is elected Mayor of Toronto in October will be the person who has sorted out the question that voters have on their minds.

At the moment, it is not clear just what that question is. Rob Ford has no idea why he wants to be re-elected, he just thinks he deserves it because of the terrific job he has done.

David Soknacki, the former Scarborough councillor who has declared his candidacy, has made it clear that he doesn’t support the subway extension in Scarborough, particularly since it doesn’t provide as good service as an LRT which is $100 million less expensive. This might be an eminently sound position, but it isn’t large enough to attract enough voters to put him on top. It answers the question “Is the Scarborough subway extension a good idea?” But I suspect that’s not the question on everyone’s mind.

We are still waiting for three candidates to jump into the race—John Tory, Olivia Chow and Karen Stintz (who may not run if Tory does)— so we don’t know what they’ll say.

In the 2010 election Ford created the issue and then answered the question.

He talked about the “gravy train” at city hall (a culture of dumb spending) and then implying it was also a culture of entitlement. In speech after speech he gave examples of dumb spending at city hall: like spending $300,000 to build a single room in a shelter for the homeless. Neither of the other leading contenders, George Smitherman or Rocco Rossi, could respond since neither of them knew very much about city hall, having never served on council.

Ford then answered the question that he had put into voters’ heads: If you are wondering who will stop the gravy train at city hall, it’s me. That’s how he won the election.

Forty years ago David Crombie had a campaign sign reading, “Mayor Crombie” which some argued was a bit presumptuous, but it answered the question of who would be the mayor now that a tired and confused Bill Dennison had decided to not run again.

The question  was, Who would fill the vacancy in  the mayor’s  office? The answer was, David Crombie. It worked.

Eight years ago David Miller came in with his broom, answering the question, who will clean up the mess at City Hall after Mel Lastman is finally gone? It was a strategy that had been used before – Allan Lamport used it to get elected mayor in 1952 – but it worked well for Miller running against John Tory who was not clear about the question that his candidacy was answering.

What’s the question this time around? Here are some things that John Tory and Olivia Chow are probably looking at right now.

Toronto needs a mayor of whom it can be proud; and who will that person be? This could be the question that gets answered, but is it specific enough? Is it deep enough? Toronto’s problems go way beyond pride. After three years of Rob and Doug Ford, the problems reach into good governance—which Toronto has been missing—and into financial strength that has been drained by low taxes and dumb spending.

Or: City Hall needs a leader who will restore good governance to the city’s business. But do people care about good governance? Do they know what it means and can they distinguish it from bad governance? Perhaps the right candidate can give to this kind of an answer some sort of resonance.

The most attractive candidate will probably surprise us with the question and the answer. Good campaigns often do, but they’ll also tap into the issues that have been lying under the surface during the raucous Rob Ford reign.

What seems clear at the moment is that Rob Ford no longer has the credibility to define the question or to offer an answer. There might be some voters who will support him thick and thin, but they are not numerous enough to put him over the top—unless, of  course, the other candidates don’t ever define the question which their candidacy will answer.

John Sewell is a former Mayor of Toronto